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{"sheet":"Mad Cow","index":0,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5]]}
[null,"Mad Cow Disease"]
[]
[null,"A:","has Mad Cow disease"]
[null,"B:","tests positive for Mad Cow disease"]
[]
[null,0.03,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.03"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.97},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"}]
[]
[null,0.9,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.9"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":9.9999999999999978E-2},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"1-B13","v":1.0000000000000009E-2},"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"=1-B13"}]
[null,0.99,"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"0.99"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":2.7E-2},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"}]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":3.670000000000001E-2},"Pr(B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B16)","v":"=B9*B6+B12*B7"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B15/B16","v":0.73569482288828314},"Pr(A|B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B18)","v":"=B15/B16"}]

{"sheet":"MC data tables","index":1,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5],[0,6,1,10],[5,6,5,7]]}
[null,"Mad Cow Disease",null,null,null,null,"Data Tables"]
[]
[null,"A:","has Mad Cow disease",null,null,null,"In order to see how cell B18 varies as"]
[null,"B:","tests positive for Mad Cow disease",null,null,null,"cell B6 is varied, we can build a \"Data Table.\""]
[]
[null,0.03,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.03"},null,"a data table",null,"The formula in the top right"]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.97},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"},null,"<blank>","formula","will have its changing values"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"the",null,"listed in the rows below"]
[null,0.9,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.9"},null,"values",null,"as each value in the first"]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":9.9999999999999978E-2},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"},null,"here","highlight","column which is placed into "]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"are","the","the \"column input cell\"."]
[null,{"$f":"1-B13","v":1.0000000000000009E-2},"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"=1-B13"},null,"placed","entire"]
[null,0.99,"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"0.99"},null,"into","shaded","For the table to the left"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"the","region to","below, the formula \"=B18\""]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":2.7E-2},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"},null,"\"column","start","was placed into cell H24."]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":3.670000000000001E-2},"Pr(B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B16)","v":"=B9*B6+B12*B7"},null,"input",null,"Values were put into G25:G30,"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"cell\"",null,"and G24:H30 was highlighted."]
[null,{"$f":"B15/B16","v":0.73569482288828314},"Pr(A|B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B18)","v":"=B15/B16"}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Then"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Data"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"What-If Analysis"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Data Table"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"was selected, and B6 was"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B18","v":0.73569482288828314},"entered in the dialog box:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,2.9999999999999997E-4,2.6297847472484637E-2]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.476190476190476]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,0.02,0.64748201438848896]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,0.03,0.73569482288828314]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,0.04,0.78947368421052611]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,0.05,0.82568807339449535]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Column H in the table shows how H24 (really, B18)"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"varies as the values in column G are plugged into B6."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"The table is \"live\". For example, change the 4.00%"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"to 5.00%, and the last two right-column entries will"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"become the same."]

{"sheet":"MC goal seek","index":2,"n_rows":43,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":43,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5],[0,6,1,10]]}
[null,"Mad Cow Disease",null,null,null,null,"Goal Seek (one-dimensional solving)"]
[]
[null,"A:","has Mad Cow disease",null,null,null,"In order to find what value in cell B6 will generate a"]
[null,"B:","tests positive for Mad Cow disease",null,null,null,"value of 50.00% in cell B18, we can use Excel's"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"built-in \"goal-seeking\" feature."]
[null,0.03,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.03"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.97},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"},null,"Select"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Data"]
[null,0.9,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.9"},null,"What-If Analysis"]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":9.9999999999999978E-2},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"},null,"Goal Seek …"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"and fill in the dialog box:"]
[null,{"$f":"1-B13","v":1.0000000000000009E-2},"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"=1-B13"}]
[null,0.99,"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"0.99"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":2.7E-2},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"}]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":3.670000000000001E-2},"Pr(B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B16)","v":"=B9*B6+B12*B7"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B15/B16","v":0.73569482288828314},"Pr(A|B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B18)","v":"=B15/B16"}]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Hit \"OK\", and you'll find that a value of 1.10% in cell B6"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"yields a value of 49.99% in cell B18."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"It's not perfect (49.99%  ¹ 50%), but it's likely good enough."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"If there are multiple values for the \"changing cell\" which"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"yield the same \"to value\" in the \"set call,\" which solution you"]
[null,3,"x",null,null,null,"see will depend on what starting value was in the \"changing"]
[null,{"$f":"B28^2-3*B28+2","v":2},"(x-1)(x-2)",null,null,null,"cell.\""]
[]
[null,"x = 1 and x = 2 are both solutions."]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"If there's no solution to your problem, Goal Seek will tell you."]
[null,2,"y"]
[null,{"$f":"B40^2","v":4},"y2"]
[]
[null,"No number has a negative square."]

{"sheet":"Matt","index":3,"n_rows":19,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":19,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5]]}
[null,"The Interview"]
[]
[null,"A:","gets the job offer"]
[null,"B:","is called \"Matt\""]
[]
[null,0.2,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.2"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.8},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"}]
[]
[null,0.75,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.75"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":0.25},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"}]
[]
[null,0.1,"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"0.1"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B12","v":0.9},"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"=1-B12"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":0.15000000000000002},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"}]
[null,{"$f":"B7*B12","v":8.0000000000000016E-2},"Pr not A, and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B16)","v":"=B7*B12"}]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":0.23000000000000004},"Pr(B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B17)","v":"=B9*B6+B12*B7"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B15/B17","v":0.65217391304347827},"Pr(A|B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B19)","v":"=B15/B17"}]

{"sheet":"Arrests","index":4,"n_rows":6,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":6,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5]]}
[null,"Arrests"]
[]
[null,{"$f":"16%*27%","v":4.3200000000000002E-2},"Pr(arrest and conviction)",null,null,{"$f":"showformula(B3)","v":"=16%*27%"}]
[null,{"$f":"16%*73%","v":0.1168},"Pr(arrest and no conviction)",null,null,{"$f":"showformula(B4)","v":"=16%*73%"}]
[null,{"$f":"16%*27%*19%","v":8.208E-3},"Pr(prison term)",null,null,"=16%*27%*19%"]
[null,{"$f":"84%","v":0.84},"Pr(no arrest)",null,null,"=84%"]

{"sheet":"CDOs","index":5,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5]]}
[null,"Collateralized Debt Obligations"]
[]
[null,"A:","industry is \"strong\""]
[null,"B:","bankruptcy"]
[]
[null,0.6,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.6"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.4},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"}]
[]
[null,0.1,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.1"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":0.9},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"}]
[]
[null,0.3,"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"0.3"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B12","v":0.7},"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"=1-B12"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":0.06},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"}]
[null,{"$f":"B7*B12","v":0.12},"Pr not A, and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B16)","v":"=B7*B12"}]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":0.18},"Pr(B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B17)","v":"=B9*B6+B12*B7"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B17","v":0.82000000000000006},"Pr(not B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B18)","v":"=1-B17"}]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B10","v":0.54},"Pr(A and not B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B20)","v":""}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B19/B18","v":0.65853658536585369},"Pr(A|not B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B21)","v":"=B19/B18"}]

{"sheet":"Clouseau","index":6,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":23,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,1,0,5]]}
[null,"Inspector Clouseau"]
[]
[null,"A:","is murder target"]
[null,"B:","piano falls nearby"]
[]
[null,0.4,"Pr(A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B6)","v":"0.4"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B6","v":0.6},"Pr(not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B7)","v":"=1-B6"}]
[]
[null,0.95,"Pr(B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B9)","v":"0.95"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B9","v":5.0000000000000044E-2},"Pr(not B|A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B10)","v":"=1-B9"}]
[]
[null,0.02,"Pr(B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B12)","v":"0.02"}]
[null,{"$f":"1-B12","v":0.98},"Pr(not B|not A)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B13)","v":"=1-B12"}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B9","v":0.38},"Pr(A and B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B15)","v":"=B6*B9"}]
[null,{"$f":"B7*B12","v":1.2E-2},"Pr not A, and B)",null,"=B7*B12"]
[null,{"$f":"B9*B6+B12*B7","v":0.39200000000000002},"Pr(B)",null,"=B9*B6+B12*B7"]
[null,{"$f":"B15/B17","v":0.96938775510204078},"Pr(A|B)",null,"=B15/B17"]
[]
[null,{"$f":"1-B17","v":0.60799999999999998},"Pr(not B)",null,"=1-B17"]
[null,{"$f":"B6*B10","v":2.0000000000000018E-2},"Pr(A and not B)",null,"=B6*B10"]
[null,{"$f":"B20-B21","v":0.58799999999999997},"Pr(not A and not B)",null,"=B20-B21"]
[null,{"$f":"B22/B20","v":0.96710526315789469},"Pr(not A|not B)",null,{"$f":"showformula(B23)","v":"=B22/B20"}]